ND Lawmakers Should Ignore Fargo Demands for Dam and Diversion Funding

Yesterday – January 5, 2021 marked the beginning of the 67th North Dakota Legislative Assembly.

Will Fargo extend their hand and twist elbows for another wealthy welfare check, as they have done for the past 5 legislative sessions?

The $7.89 billion ND Legacy Fund could be a likely target. With $5.9+ billion in historical legacy fund deposits and a modicum of interest, is it really fair for Fargo to expect a financial windfall when Fargo rarely acknowledges evidence of life west of Casselton, ND?

Constitutional language states that after July 1, 2017 – the state legislature can spend up to 15 percent of the principal balance of the Legacy Fund per biennium, if two thirds of each house of the legislature agrees to the spending.

That means up to $946.9 million could be siphoned off the ND Legacy Fund at the will of those that wield the most power in the legislature.

Fargo has two major big ticket projects they are obsessed with.

$2.75 billion Fargo Moorhead Dam and Diversion
$1.19 billion Red River Valley Water Supply Project

That’s $3.94 billion dollars in projects for a city that has averaged a paltry $47.8 million in annual sales tax over the past decade. That translates to spending the entire sales tax proceeds for 82.31 years on just these two projects.

For the purposes of this article, the focus will be the Fargo Moorhead Dam and Diversion project, which is based upon an alchemy of junk science, overstated flood forecast, fiscal irresponsibility and legal intimidation.

The first two made it possible for the latter two which all started with Junk Science. The EOE (Expert Opinion Elicitation): a theoretical hypothesis based on incomplete data weighted to favor the project.

Then comes the Overstated Flood Forecast. How is it possible for the National Weather Service to get the forecasting so horribly wrong? They claim to have the tools and the data but shrug their shoulders and cite a perfect thaw when they get it wrong.

How wrong were the forecasts? 100 percent of the spring flood forecasts issued in 2020 were wrong, errors ranging from as little as 3.67 feet to as high as 12.37 feet. Fargo locked onto the 5 percent worst case scenario like a guided missile and coerced West Fargo and Moorhead to join into a preemptive Emergency Declaration to tap into federal and state funds. Not to worry, its not a fluke ~ the past decade is riddled with overstated flood forecasts with the worst being 2016 when the Red River never reached flood stage the entire year. They only missed 2016 by 16.08 feet.

The propensity for Fargo to spend money that Fargo doesn’t have.

Let’s look at some water related project and cost over-runs for perspective…

With the last outdated project cost estimate of $2.75 billion dating back to 2018, will Fargo and county leaders pump to brakes or the gas on the arguably$5-7 billion project? As of 1/3/2021, the FM area carries debt obligations over $3.4 billion with the 2+ year old cost estimate because there is essentially ZERO CHANCE the FMDA project will come in on budget with the miserable track record of projects, such as the aforementioned. This suggests the $2.75 billion FMDA project could end up somewhere between $4.6 billion to $6.9 billion dollars.

10 years of Fargo and Cass county diversion sales tax collections and it appears the FMDA has spent more than they collected.

As of November 30, 2020

$ 736,313,540.56 in Approved Contract/Invoice.
$ 602,885,091.17 in Liquidated money out of pocket.
$ 133,428,449.39 in Outstanding Encumbrance yet to pay.
$ 150,250,000.00 in loans taken without voter consent.

The FMDA ilk sells fear because it coerces the taxpayer into believing the decision makers have property owners best interests at heart. If this was truly about Fargo being flood-prone, then Fargo should have completed internal flood protections to ensure that the group they say are at risk of flooding have been protected. However, this is about future development and the local decision makers dragging their feet in completing the remaining 20+ miles of flood-walls, dikes and levees to foster support for the FMDA project.

The FMDA talking heads recite their script about FEMA Flood Insurance costing thousands per year without the FMDA project, yet the average price in Fargo, ND – $618.14 as of November 30, 2020. The most insane part is Fargo and Cass county encouraging growth into areas flooded in 2009.

So how much have past flood fights cost?

Wow! Over the past 27 years, Fargo has spent $38.3 million fighting floods to protect the most risky development projects and was reimbursed $21.9 million thus far, leaving Fargo taxpayers on the hook for $16.3 million in costs (avg 600k/year) to justify a $5-$7 billion dollar boon-doggle.

Just in case it’s hard to wrap your head around how much $1 billion dollars is…, you would need to earn $100,000 per year for 10,000 years to equal $1 billion. Which is ironically about how long ago Glacial Lake Agassiz drained, as theorized by North Dakota State Geologist John Bluemle (1990-2004) (read more…).

The staggering part is Fargo’s development plan disguised as flood control could require 5 to 7 times that amount.

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